Sunday, 25 May 2014

Analysis of Elections 2014

John Oliver's coverage on Indian elections is by far the comprehensive view of the Indian elections.

Firstly,  the obvious observations :

BJP has won 282 seats without the help of allies. This is 10 more than the minimum 272 seats required to emerge as the majority.
Cong has managed only 44 seats. Most of the seats are won by a narrow margin. Only Sonia Gandhi has managed to get more than 60% vote share.
AAP has won only 4 seats and that too in Punjab. This is disastrous, clearly indicating that urban voters prefer stability more than the approach taken by party leaders.

Some more interesting points
1) YSR(9) vs TDP(16) battle is very close in most of the constituencies. In the 16 seats won by YSR, TDP is only behind by 8% in most of them. Similarly for the 9 seats won by YSR. TRS(11) ,BJP(3) and Cong(2) scoop up the rest of divided AP.
2) BJD(20) has won all seats with a healthy margin. This paves way for another good run for the capable Odisha regional party.
3) End of the run for regional parties which have not performed well in their home states. DMK(0), SP(5), BSP(0), CPM(0), MNS(0), NCP,(6) AAP(4).
4) Congress is decimated by urban votes - winning only Ludhiana and Erunakulam. BJP has won 37 urban seats.
5) 97 seats decided with a <5% margin. BJP(29) and Cong(20) dividing these equally. Indicates that 2014 elections was not a narrow battle.
6) Of the 87 seats with Muslim population > 20%. BJP has won 42 seats while congress has won 10.
7) Historically those who have controlled UP have formed the government. BJP won 71 out of 80 in UP.

Quirky stats

1) Unmarried people have won the most vote shares. Think of Didi, Jayalalitha and Narendra Modi.
2) Rakhi Sawant won 2006 votes from Mumbai-North West

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